There is no doubt that this is an exciting age for technology enthusiasts. We are finally seeing elegant technology solutions to our everyday wants and needs that actually solve more problems than they create.
The next big breakthrough is coming, once again, from Apple. This June Apple is poised to announce a new device that is neither phone nor notebook, neither iPod nor PDA, but all of these things combined. I am not sure what to call it yet but some speculators are calling it the iPad and others the second generation Apple Newton.
The Apple Newton, released in 1993, was the earliest entry into what became called the Personal Digital Assistance (PDA) category. It was initially thought to replace the paper day planners that were so prevalent back then. The Newton was the same form factor as a day planner and included a large screen with handwriting recognition. The platform ultimately failed largely due to Apple not wanting it to cut into their already dismal Macintosh computer sales. They hamstrung the development effort and the Newton never reached its promised goals of accurate handwriting recognition and performance.
Even with these shortcomings the Newton was far ahead of its time but ended up being edged out by smaller form factor PDAs which eventually gave way to smartphones.
Today we have witnessed numerous attempts to fill the segment that lies between the phone and the laptop. Tablet PCs were long hailed by Microsoft to be the one. The concept of the tablet was compelling but not one that ran regular old windows, cost more than a laptop and took hours to boot up. Microsoft addressed some of the issues with Windows Tablet edition and the excellent OneNote software. But the tablets were still unwieldy expensive and slow. Microsoft later launched a top secret project they called Origami that ended up being a smaller form factor PC, the Ultra-Mobile PC (UMPC). But they were just a smaller version of suck. These devices gave way to Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and now netbooks.
Netbooks have found a price/feature niche that makes them attractive alternatives to full blown laptops. But the problem here is that everyone has been trying to cram a modification of the PC (with a full blown OS) into this niche. Netbooks are moderately successful, but produce razor thin profits and undermine the economics of the laptop industry. I don’t think anyone can sell them for too long without going out of business. The only time they make sense at all (for the manufacturers, not the consumers) is when they are bundled with an aircard and subsidized for a multi-year contract.
Apple has seen this problem for a long time, but was not willing to eat into its Mac sales to fill the gap. But now that they have a proven and extremely profitable mobile platform (the iPhone). They can justify being much more assertive with their efforts to innovate within this niche.
Apple has turned its nose up to netbooks calling them “cheap laptops” and sees the relative success of the Amazon Kindle as a mobile book reader and more importantly book portal. So I believe this June we will see a completely new convergence device that brings all the benefits of a iPod, eBook reader, Newton/PDA and netbook into one device. Supply chain insiders have leaked a very large order of 7″ touchscreen LCD panels that Apple made months ago. So this would put this new device around the size of a Kindle and squarely between the iPhone and Macbook.
I expect this device to run the iPhone 3.0 OS which may mean that it has all the voice features of the iPhone (requiring us to use a headset in lieu of holding a book-sized device to our heads). This could also mean HD playback of movies, a larger mobile browser and whole new slew of iPhone (iPad?) apps and games in the App Store.
But the two features that will really set this device apart and, in my opinion ensure its success, are:
1) eBook Reader. I can bet Apple hates to see another company make bank using their new cash-printing model. That is, provide the proprietary device with an integrated portal for purchasing content. They know that expansive content is the only way to make it work, so they will likely have to use some serious leverage to launch with as large a library as Amazon has for the Kindle.
2) Pen Digitizer. Bring back the Newton! The world is sorely lacking in a good portable device that allows for pen-based input. Imagine a device that not only allows you to carry every book, text book, reference manual and storybook you own, but also allows you to annotate, scribble, take notes with diagrams and uses OCR to index your notes so they can be organized, categorized and searched. All in one device.
Now add to that the ability to browse the Internet, manage your Outlook email and calendar, make calls and watch HD movies!?! Geeky chills run all through my body.
And my head will truly explode if they ink a deal with AT&T to subsidize these devices with an included aircard for everywhere Internet.
I can’t wait till June to find out!
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August 31st, 2010 at 12:56 pm
I just re-read this entry and am amused at both the accuracy and inaccuracy of the predictions. Apple did indeed launch a successful convergence device that effectively replaces a netbook, iPod and eBook reader. The real success of this platform, though, is largely due to Apple’s excellent implementation of a touch-and-tilt interface eschewing the stylus. Apple has been quoted as saying the stylus is what killed the tablet in the past. They maybe right, but we are still lacking a good all-in-one device for school. One that can support rich graphics in textbooks and simple, on-page notetaking. The iPad is close but not quite there. At this point, though, it is a software solution.